FBM Finishing Points is a predictor of match results. Preliminary results show that FBM Finishing Points predict the correct outcome of a match in 60% of the cases (n=27, p<0.1). In 54% of the cases FBM Finishing Points is a better explanation of the end result than xG and in 50% of the cases FBM Finishing Points is a better explanation than Shots on Target. Which is remarkable as FBM Finishing Points is a predictor. So the FBM Finishing Points value is determined before the match is played. While xG and Shots on Target are descriptive stats that are determined after the match has been played by actually counting what has happened during the match. So FBM Finishing Points are as good as xG or Shots on Target, but FBM Finishing Points have the huge advantage of being available before the match. What this means is that clubs can use FBM Finishing Points primarily to determine what the best starting XI is. Secondarily, clubs can use FBM Finishing Points to strengthen their scouting.
How FBM Finishing Points work
FBM Finishing Points is the sum of all the probabilities that pairs of players on the pitch have to be able to assist and score. FBM Finishing Points are based on the FBM stats of individual players. So it’s a bottom up method that does not include any historical team data to determine the match result. Just the stats of all the players on the pitch.
What the Bayesian match model does to determine the FBM Finishing Points is as follows:
- Use all the FBM stats of the players of the home and away team as input in the model.
- Calculate the probabilities of successful passes between each pair of players on the pitch given their FBM passing game stat and taking into account distance between these two players and the defensive strength of the opposing players.
- Calculate the probabilities of scoring and assisting each other for each pair of players on the pitch, given the likelihood that passes actually reach these players & their FBM finishing stat and taking into account the distance between these players and the defensive strength of the opposing players.
- Sum all the probabilities in step (3) to determine the FBM Finishing Points for both teams.
- Determining the ratio between the FBM Finishing Points by dividing the lowest team score by the highest team score. The higher the ratio, the more likely the match will end in a draw. The lower the ratio, the more likely the team with the highest number of FBM Finishing Points will win the match.
How to make use of FBM Finishing Points
The primary use of FBM Finishing Points for clubs is match preparation. Before the starting XI of the next opponent is known, FBM Finishing Points is the ideal tool to do scenario planning. That means that a club can determine which starting XI has the best chance of winning in a variety of scenarios of different starting XIs for the next opponent.
Once the starting XI of the opponent is known, FBM Finishing Points can be used to quickly check whether the chosen starting XI is indeed the best possible starting XI.
If during match preparation it turns out that none of all the possible scenarios creates a sufficiently big chance of winning, then what is the matter is that the club doesn’t have enough good players to beat the next opponent. This can be due to the fact that the current players of the club have either too low FBM finishing stat, FBM passing game stat or FBM defending stat. If that is the case the scouts of the club have a clear assignment of finding players that solve this deficit.